This paper aims to further investigate this observed trend, including determining the extent to which the probability of a defendant receiving a Prison sentence has changed over time and identifying potential factors that may have contributed to changes in Prison rates and predict the likelihood of a case resulting in a Prison sentence. This issue paper will seek to answer the following research questions: 

1. How has the use of prison sentences changed since 2013? To what extent can changes in Offense Severity Groups (OSG), Criminal History Scores (CH Scores), defendant characteristics, and other case-level factors account for changes in the likelihood that a prison sentence is imposed? 
2. Among cases falling within Probation- and Short Split-eligible Sentencing Guidelines Grid Boxes on the Main Grid, how has the likelihood of receiving a Prison sentence changed since 2021? Does accounting for CH Scores, OSG, offense type, and defendant characteristics explain any of this change over time?
    

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